Fiasco

[url]http://www.cnbc.com/id/41428538[/url]

[QUOTE]Forget the oddsmakers. What does the smart money on Wall Street say about the Super Bowl this Sunday? Green Bay over Pittsburgh.
Using a model that assigns teams in the National Football League a value for outperforming market expectations ? what investors call alpha ? the Green Bay Packers will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers because the Packers' alpha is lower. That is, they exceeded expectations less frequently than the Steelers during the season.
"Over the last decade, the market has systematically underestimated the lower-alpha teams' probability of victory in the Super Bowl," said...[/QUOTE]

I've been out of town since early Tuesday morning, just getting in a while ago.  It's great to be home, and even better to be staring at a Thursday card that I feel extremely confident in.  The not so great thing, was day numero uno in which we went 3-4-1 losing 1.55 units.  I feel I was in every game though, and at some point stood a solid chance to win.  I didn't get to watch any of the games as I was preoccupied and busy dealing with family matters out of town, but I gather just by checking the box scores that I had a solid enough chance in the majority of the games.  Tomorrow I hope the Braves can continue their streak and the Twins can start one on their own, and hold off on the sweep (I think??)  anyways, It's time to bounce back after a rough first day and go into the weekend off of a winning day!  Let's start a streak of my own.

Season Record 3-4-1 (-1.55 Units)

June 3, 2010

Atlanta Braves (Medlen) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Kuroda)
The Braves are rolling, and while they got the Phillies at the perfect time, I think they’re also coming in as one of the hotter teams in baseball against a Dodger’s team that was extremely fortunate against a poor diamondback performance in their last series. In all, Medlen has been solid in his outings this year and to this point has given his team a chance to win in his outings, a necessity when betting a dog. Kuroda always seems to be a wildcard, and a guy that I’m always hesitant when backing, but not so much in fading. It’s not that he’s bad, it just seems that he’s prone to miss lapses from time to time, and with a fortunate Dodgers winning streak I think there is value to be found on the braves. I show the braves scoring just over 4 runs, and the Dodgers just under 4, and given the streak the braves are on, and the “luck” the Dodgers have seen this week, +125 is too good to pass on.
Pick: Atlanta Braves +125 (1 to win 1.25)

Los Angeles Angels (Weaver) @ Kansas City Royals (Greinke)
Weaver has been fairly solid this year, and Greinke has been hittable (unlike last year at this point) yet solid. I think this total is set WAY too low at 7.5 (plus money especially) and will gladly hit the over. I think the books should have it at 8 first of all, and even then I’d lean over. Weaver can get himself into trouble by enabling opponents to get on base, and with the Royals hitting at a high average, I like their chances to get 3-4 runs off of him in his 6 innings of work, and tack on another 1 or 2 in the remaining innings against the dreadful bullpen. I feel the Royals can score 5 runs fairly easily, which means that Greinke + the bull pen has to hold the Angels to 2 runs or less in order for us to lose… I simply don’t think that’s happening, as I also have Greinke getting into trouble with base runners and giving up 3-4 with the same struggles from the bull pen (1-2 in their 3 innings of work). Combined I have it at just under 5 runs for both teams (4.91 and 4.93 respectively) mainly a result of their inabilities to keep runners off the base paths and the likeliness the bullpen gets shelled late. The thing that I think the 7.5 total is failing to account for is the poor pitching by BOTH team’s bullpens. Yes, this may be a 2-1 type game and I may never come close to cashing this ticket… but I LOVE being able to get a 7.5 total at + money with 2 pitchers that haven’t been lights out, deep pitchers all year (only going about 6 innings each) with killer bullpens against poor offenses. Both Offenses can put up runs, and both bull pens can blow the game. The Over in this game is my favorite play of the day, and I feel it hits at a reasonably profitable percent of the time.
Pick: Over 7.5 +105 (1 to win 1.05)

Minnesota Twins (Pavano) @ Seattle Mariners (Hernandez)
Felix has struggled this year, mostly early, and while he’s recently turned things around, the Twins lineup presents a problem for him. He’s given up 1 run, 3 runs, 2 runs, and 1 run in his last 4 outings, but the teams that he’s faced haven’t been as potent as the Twins. Those performances were against Baltimore, Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles (Angels). He’s been nothing short of excellent against Minnesota in the past, but Minnesota is much better this year than in the past so I read little into that… I have the Twins at 3.9 runs scored and the Mariners at 3.5 runs. Even if you adjust the Twins down a little because of Felix’s past against them, and recent resurgence I still think getting +124 is a real steal and true value, given Pavano can throw a 1-2 run game against a poor Mariners lineup just as easily as Felix. We just need to hit 1 of the 2 sides to profit today, and I feel like there’s a decent chance we hit both.
Pick: Minnesota Twins +124 (1 to win 1.24)
Best of luck today

A couple of new series kicking off today, while others are continuing.  In all, I can only hope June is as kind to me as it often is to baseball bettors.  I have a huge card today, hopefully I won't regret it...    I went ahead and previewed each wager I'm making today, as posted in my baseball thread in the baseball sub forum titled The Firm- Fiasco Gate.  Lets hope this is the start of a very profitable season.

 

 

Season Record 0-0-0 (+0 Units)

June 1, 2010

Brewers (Davis) @ Marlins (Nolasco)
I have this capped right at the total of 9.5 runs, so no play on the total. I have the brewers scoring just over 5 runs though, while the Marlins just over 4, for a 1 run advantage in which I play games around PK giving me a solid play on the Brewers here. In all I feel that this line is a bit inflated and there is HUGE value on the Brew Crew. Doug Davis isn’t Ubaldo, but I feel he can hold the Marlins to 3-4 runs and with Ricky throwing for the marlins that should be enough, especially at + odds. Ricky pitched 2 innings against Milwaukee in 2006 and gave up 5 ER. Not too much to be read into there though… I just feel that Ricky should NOT be a -160 favorite… Value on Brew Crew!
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +157 (1 to win 1.57)

Mets (Pelfrey) @ Padres (Leblanc)
I show this being a low scoring affair with 6.29 runs scored, and the Padres getting just under 4 of them (3.7). I show the Mets only getting 2.6 or so off the Padres and think Leblanc gets things back on track today, especially as a home dog.
Play: San Diego Padres +108 (1 to win 1.08)

Diamondbacks (Haren) @ Dodgers (Ely)
Ely has been quite impressive this year and that D-Back pen sucks. Haren has been average at best, and in all I feel the Dodgers at home should be closer to -140 here. I show them scoring 5.7 runs while the diamondbacks only getting 3.5 putting my total closer to 9. I don’t like a total play though with two decent pitchers going, and Haren likely to bounce back and put together a decent outing soon… Oh, and Ethier is BACKKKK and he owns Haren for the most part.
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -124 (1.24 to win 1)

Rockies (Hammel) @ Giants (Zito)
I have the Giants at 5.38 runs scored while the Rockies struggling to get 3. In all I feel this will be a low scoring affair, with the Rockies turning to their bull pen by the 6th inning. I think the Giants will get 3-4 runs early and Zito will throw well enough to get the Win a decent percent of the time, definitely enough to make -131 profitable.
Play: San Francisco Giants -131 (1.31 to win 1)

Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in this game. Now this is slightly a result of Pineiro’s terrible start on the road, and he’s due to regress… however I also feel that he should NEVER be favored here… Bannister has been solid enough for his team to win in his appearances this year, something that I can’t say for Pineiro. This is a spot that the books are creating value on KC because of the perception that the Angels are way better… this year, that’s not the case though and I see through it. Pineiro’s going to have to prove that he CAN bounce back, on the road, before I think of laying off or playing that side…
Play: Kansas City Royals -101 (1.01 to win 1)

Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
As I said, I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in the game. If that’s even close to true, the Over will hit. Bannister will give up 2-3 runs, at least, and the bullpen is good for another 1 or 2. Both bullpens suck, in the event that both starting pitchers show up, and in all honesty I think this total will be 9.5 or even 10 by game time. I’m laying a hefty price on the juice tonight, -125, which is why I haven’t locked it in as a Firm Fiasco LOCK. It’s just a one unit play, but one that I feel great about. This is my strongest play today, even though it’s weighted the same as the others.
Play: Angels @ Royals Over 9 -125 (1.25 to win 1)

Rangers (Harden) @ White Sox (Buehrle)
I don’t think Buehrle has been too bad this year, and a relatively cheap price of -125 for the staff Ace seems reasonable against a slumping rangers club. Texas without Cruz is a far less potent offense, especially on the road. Buehrle has been solid against Texas in the past, though not recent, we must remember he CAN dominate any game he’s in. Harden pitched against Peavy earlier this year, and gave up 3 earned in 6 innings pitched, getting a 6-5 victory at home. (at home being the key) Until the Rangers can prove that they can win on the road, I will gladly take an ace like Buehrle against them. All in all I have this game at 5 runs for the White Sox and 4 for Texas, but with those 4 imaginary predictive runs comes the chance of a Buehrle gem
Play: Chicago White Sox -124 (1.24 to win 1)

Twins (Blackburn) @ Mariners (Vargas)
The Twins have been solid recently, and the Mariners have been, well… the Mariners… Blackburn has struggled on the road this year and Vargas has been stellar at home. Blackburn is coming off of 5 quality starts, while Vargas has been pretty much lights out all year, only giving up more than 3 ER on 1 occasion (his first start, at Texas, that team that has an AMAZING offense at home…) I have to think that my numbers are pretty solid in showing Minnesota will struggle to get 3 runs, and Seattle has an excellent chance of putting up 4 runs, as I have them at 4.8 runs. In all, I feel there is a lot of value on the Mariners tonight.
Play: Seattle Mariners -108 (1.08 to win 1)

Anyone making any last deposits/re-ups or withdrawals (or even worried about June 1 at all)?

I withdrew my poker stars money a few days ago but am letting the sports money ride (small amount in accounts and wouldn't be withdrawing soon anyways). Poker Players seem to be more aware or informed about June 1, I haven't heard anything mentioned or at least not recently here really. At 2+2 though, it's a hot topic.


I here that withdrawals should be alright after June 1 but deposits may become a potentially LARGE problem (they already make it hard :wacko:). True if...

It is essential to point out that betting the NBA can be very frustrating at times, especially betting on teams that are in the bottom third of the league. The matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the New York Knicks however is a prime example of how bottom dwellers can provide excellent opportunities to show season long profit. Friday brings about Stephen Curry’s first trip to the legendary Madison Square Garden as a pro; and to this point, Stephen Curry has failed to live up to the hype. I expected big things, and am shocked in what we have gotten thus far. Call it home state bias (given we’re both good ol’ Carolina boys) but I truly thought Stephen Curry would runaway with rookie of the year honors. Don Nelson loves the kid and has shown an enthusiastic willingness to start him, plus his stroke is pure and he’s wetter than Hurricane Ida. He’s struggled to find that silky smooth shot this year though and therefore has only provided a measly 8.7 points per game. On the upside, his low average in points per game has been coupled with a surprising 5.4 assists per game. He’s turning into quite the passing machine; however, is that what Golden State really drafted him for? As a pure shooter, it’s rare for him to look to pass first, but from what I’ve seen of him play, (four or five games) it seems as though he is looking to pass first. His minutes are slowly decreasing and he didn’t start for the first time on Wednesday. Don Nelson said the decision was based on matchups, but his role is slowly turning into more of a reserve role. In my eyes, I only see him getting twenty minutes or so until he gets things turned around and adjusts to the league. I don't think that adjustment will take long... As a matter of fact, I could just be blind and naïve but I think it's highly probably that he has his coming out party in New York on Friday night. We’re writing the story of Stephen’s career here and what better time than now to get your first double-double and put up 20+ points against the team that passed you up. The Knicks expressed interest in Curry went elsewhere on draft day to the dismay of many avid Knick fans. Apparently, Jordan Hill just doesn’t bring the same buzz to the arena. Curry does, and when he steps into the Garden on Friday night I expect a big performance and angry Knick fans to boo their beloved Knicks multiple times before the night is out. The Warriors got blown out last time out but blewout the Timberwolves the night before and can easily put up 130+ on this terrible, and I mean Washington Nationals bad, Knicks team. The Knicks are my “fade” team this year, and I may be the stupidest handicapper in America for taking a struggling, two win, Warriors team on the road… but give me Mr. Steph Curry in Madison Square on a Friday night and I’ll give you a winning ticket. I feel there are no tricks in the line as it should be Golden State around a PK. If I had to bet on movements I’d expect it to close with Golden state favored by a point or two which is why I’ve already locked in Golden State +1. I would also imagine the Warriors will receive public action, which I’m not thrilled about but will accept, nonetheless. I simply won’t bet on the Knicks this year (at least not now). Golden State I still have hope for, the Knicks on the other hand are already clearing cap space and preparing for a lotto pick + LBJ in 2010. Essentially, Golden State is my 25^th best team in the league and the Knicks are my 29^th. The Warriors have the best chance of winning in blowout fashion, in my opinion, and I thoroughly expect a Timberwolves type of game. If the Warriors get up early, the Knicks will quit and you can cash hopefully our tickets will be cashed midway through the third. Regardless of the outcome of a game, I always want to make sure I have the side that I feel gives me the best chance to win, and wins the majority of the time. Tonight, out of all the games on the board, Golden State has the highest chance of blowout and therefore is my lock of the night. Oh yeah, and let’s not forget that Steph did put up 44 at the Garden on that magical March evening impressing the King himself….

Michael Turner Over 73.5 Rushing yards -105
Tony Gonzalez Over 5 Receptions +110

:lock2::lock2::lock2:

Turner has really dropped off this year... obviously this is a good time to re-establish himself... and the falcons O-line straight up EMBARRASSED last week so obviously they shouldn't be as pitiful again... 2 good things that mean nothing but at least give peace of mind that 74 yards or more is easily achievable...

and Tony will get 5 receptions, or at least I'll bet that he goes over that number with + money every time...

It's as simple as that :grrr: